socio-economic system, sustainable development, region, municipalities, strategy, sustainability

Shovgenov Tembot Muratovich

The main aspects of the sustainability of regional socio-economic systems // Regional Economics and Management: An Electronic Scientific Journal. ISSN 1999-2645. -. Article number: 1107. Date of publication: 2007-09-29. Access Mode: https: // site / article / 1107 /

Shovgenov Tembot Muratovich
Adyghe state university
[email protected]

Abstract

The formation of a stable socio-economic system should be based on the principles of sustainable development. It should be noted the fact that the current economic situation in Russia, the existing mechanisms of financial and economic base of regions and municipalities - all oppose the implementation of sustainable development strategies. The article discusses different approaches to assessing the sustainability of socio-economic systems.

socio-economic system, sustainable development, region, municipalities, strategy, sustainability

Shovgenov Tembot Muratovich

Key aspects of the sustainability of the regional socio-economic systems. Regional economy and management: electronic scientific journal. . Art. # 1107 Date issued: 2007-09-29. Available at: https: // site / article / 1107 /

The dynamism of socio-economic systems, including the stages of growth and stagnation, determine the significance of the characteristics of “sustainability of development” of the territory as a result of the quality and effectiveness of the management of administrative-territorial entities. Assessment of sustainability as an element of a systematic definition of management effectiveness is necessary both for retrospective analysis and for planning territorial development programs.

There are many interpretations of the terms stability, stability, equilibrium used for physical, economic and other systems. Their diversity makes it difficult to assess the adequacy of the applied methods and models for their quantitative measurement and, accordingly, the management of these phenomena in the socio-economic sphere.

Some of the definitions are given in table 4.1.

Table 4.1

Differences in the concepts of stability and sustainability

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• 199 Tatarkin A.I., Lvov D.S., Kuklin A.A. and others. Modeling sustainable development as a condition for improving the economic security of the territory. - Ekaterinburg: Publishing House of the Ural University, 1999
• 200 Danilov-Danilyan V.I. The state of the environment in the Russian Federation and prospects for sustainable development // Ecology and Economics: Regional Problems of the Transition to Sustainable Development. A look into the 21st century. Kemerovo: Kuzbassvuzizdat, 1997.
• 21 Lusse A.V. The competitiveness of the economy in a sustainable and unsustainable development. Abstract. diss. ... cand. what. sciences. - SPb., 1999 .-- S. 19.

sustainability and stability of economic development;

• 2) this is the classic term “equilibrium”, used in micro- and macroeconomic analysis to characterize supply and demand, dynamic equilibrium and sustainable effective development, as well as “steady state” (steady state, state of stationary stability), introduced by R. Solow;
• 3) this is the term “sustainable development” —sustainable development used to characterize the type of economic development that ensures environmental safety, reproducibility of limited resources and the quality of economic growth (fair distribution of income) of the proposal;
• 4) this is the term "sustained positive economic growth" (sustainable economic growth), used in the characterization of dynamic equilibrium and sustainable effective development.

The concepts of stability and stability are often used as synonyms from a physical point of view, if two types of stability are distinguished: resident stability (stability) - the ability to remain in a stable (equilibrium) state under load, and elastic stability (stability itself) - the ability to quickly recover when a load is removed .

There is currently no generally accepted definition of the concept of “sustainable development of social systems”. But since society is increasingly acutely aware of the lack of natural resources and environmental degradation, the following definition of sustainable development is the most common: it is development in which the needs of the present are satisfied, but the ability of future generations to satisfy their needs is not compromised. In this way, the UN International Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland Commission) defined sustainable development in the report “Our Common Future” (1987; Russian translation 1989 “02). The concept of sustainable development shifts the emphasis from quantitative development parameters to qualitative ones, taking into account the interconnections between by man, society and nature.

The prerequisite for the sustainable development of human society is environmental stability, i.e. the ability of an ecosystem to return to its original state after the removal of an external influence that has brought it out of balance and maintain its structure and functional properties when external factors act on it. In other words, this is the preservation of natural ecosystems that have not been disturbed by human economic activity and the restoration of those disturbed to the extent necessary for humanity to exist. Both environmental and economic stability are ultimately a social problem; both mean a transition to socially stable development.

The variety of definitions in the absence of their classification by objects led to the formation of a number of specific concepts of sustainability and stability of social development (“stability of the region”, “sustainable development”, “stability of socio-economic development”, etc.). Over 60 definitions of sustainable development are known, each of which contributes to the specification of this term. There is a widespread understanding of sustainable development, but this approach contradicts the understanding of stability and is not synonymous with sustainability. These concepts are inadequate, because development stability is determined by the dynamics of indicators, and not by indicators of its statistical state (the system may have a stably unstable position). When analyzing the sustainability and stability of socio-economic systems, it is important to consider their quality. Social stability, for example, can be interpreted as a state of stagnation of the administrative-territorial formation (there are no sharp changes in the development schedule, zero or low growth rates, social tension, low environmental quality, high crime rate, etc.). The level of development of this education should be recognized as low. We do not analyze such a state of the territories, since the management of socio-economic development is the timeliness and effectiveness of the reforms in the economic and social sphere, the population’s satisfaction with these reforms and the quality of life in general. Sustainable economic development implies positive values \u200b\u200bfor economic growth. Sustainable economic growth underlies the sustainable development of society. Economic growth is usually understood as the changes in the economic activity of society, the trends of the main elements and indicators characterizing them (production volume, prices, employment, income, etc.). Growth finds its expression in an increase in gross regional product and an increase in national wealth.

The problem of sustainable development of the territories of the Russian Federation was first posed in the "Concept of the transition of the Russian Federation to sustainable development", approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 04/01/1996 No. 440. The following criteria for substantiating management decisions and sustainable development results were approved:

• - no economic activity can be justified if the damage caused to it exceeds the benefits received;
• - damage to the environment should be minimally possible, taking into account economic and social factors.

At the same time, sustainable development should ensure Russia's security in the economic, social, defense, environmental and other spheres. Unfortunately, this Decree remained a declaration and did not receive practical implementation in the plans and programs of the country's socio-economic development. Theoretically, the principles of sustainable socio-economic development are reflected in the development strategies of individual regions. The problem of sustainability of the development of administrative-territorial formations of the Russian Federation is currently not studied theoretically and is practically not reflected in the plans and managerial decisions of LSG bodies.

The concept of sustainable development cannot be limited only by its socio-economic, environmental or other aspects. Only an expanded interpretation of it can be considered objective, for example, as a stable balanced socio-economic development that does not destroy the environment and ensures the continuous progress of society. Further, as an object of research on the sustainability and stability of socio-economic development, first of all, the region is used as a subject of the Federation, but the developed methods for assessing the stability of development can be extended to other administrative-territorial entities.

Stability and sustainability of socio-economic development) means the balance of elements of the socio-economic system, which lasts a certain period of time. But at the same time, equilibrium does not mean stagnation of the system, on the contrary, we understand stability as stability of the development of a socio-economic system, similarly stability is the stability of the development of the system. A stable poor state or a long-lasting static state of an object of research is not a control goal. Regional management should be aimed at ensuring stable, sustainable growth, improving the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the standard of living of the population. Not considering it appropriate to express the term stability through sustainability, and vice versa, as well as showing a variety of approaches to their definition, we propose to consider them synonyms in assessing the quality of development. The authors of this thesis do not pretend to be unambiguous and admit criticism of this point of view, but it is obvious that sustainable growth and sustainable development do not contradict stable growth and development, and their division from a position of a narrower or broader interpretation of the development process is not from the standpoint of regional governance principled.

As for the concept of “economic development”, there are also many interpretations of it in the literature, and the term is extremely widely used. L. Balcerovich 20 ’, G. Muir-dahl, D. Card and A. Krueger connect economic development with an increase in well-being, per capita incomes, an improvement in the quality of life, and an increase in the degree of satisfaction of the basic needs of all members of society. D. Lukyanenko, A.M. Lieutenant L.L. Antonyuk focuses on the most general laws of economic development: its cyclical nature, its connection with progress and growth, evolution and expansion. R. Nureyev, S. Enke, G. Arndt emphasize the complex, multidimensional nature of this process, which includes profound changes in technical, economic, social relations, political, institutional spheres, in the field of infrastructure, technology, education, as well as in the dominance of the main factors of production: capital, natural resources, labor.

The historical and philosophical aspect of the problem of economic development (B. Shavans, A. Nazaretyan, V. Bransky) is also distinguished, which is interpreted as a regular and multiple repetition (succession) of order and chaos in line with social synergetics or as a process of historical conditionality of development based on revolutionary and evolutionary change.

The dissemination of the term “sustainable economic development” indicates the need to strengthen attention to the qualitative characteristics behind economic dynamics. In this case, according to Kh.K. Rampersada, the sustainable economic development should include the non-linear (spasmodic and intermittent) process of increasing complexity in the transition from one qualitative state to another, as well as a change in the types of economic growth.

One cannot disagree with the fact that under the conditions of post-industrial development, “sustainable economic growth means a clearly defined growth vector within certain fluctuations in its pace, which have a positive significance. This is a discrete quantity, which for a certain period of time goes into sustainable development. Sustainable development is accompanied by periodic certain interruptions in the growth of the economy, but the vector of the economy’s movement over a sufficiently long period of time, despite zero and negative deviations, will have a generally positive orientation. ”

The need to develop an author’s definition is dictated by the inconsistency of definitions known to economic science. Each of them mainly affects only a specific area of \u200b\u200bsociety, but does not provide a complete description. In the future, under the stable (sustainable) socio-economic development of the region, we will mean a set of characteristics included in the following comprehensive definition:

• - this is a systematic, long-term and massive improvement in the quantitative and qualitative parameters of the life of the socio-economic system of the region based on revolutionary and evolutionary changes;
• - this is a balanced development that does not lead to the destruction of the ecological system of the region, but at the same time, satisfies the needs of the population of the region without harming future generations;
• - this is a process of changes in which the exploitation of natural resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of scientific and technological development and institutional changes are coordinated with each other and strengthen the current and future socio-economic potential;
• - this development is "ongoing", allowing negative and zero values \u200b\u200bof the economic growth rate, but over a long period of time having a positive focus;
• - the dynamics of the development of the socio-economic system is constantly characterized by its approaching or moving away from the equilibrium state. Due to the fact that any socio-economic system is open, it is subject to the influence of the external environment, therefore, the state of equilibrium in this system is relative and temporary.

The sustainability category of a socio-economic system is associated with the concept of “adaptability”, the essence of which is “... the ability of the system to absorb external excitations without having a pronounced consequence for its behavior in a transitional or steady state”. Absolutization of system stability has negative consequences for its development, as over adaptation to change is just as dangerous as failure to do so. Therefore, the development process of the system is characterized by the presence of a complex relationship between the phenomena of stability and variability. If the change in the parameters of the regional socio-economic system occurs within certain limits, then the system is able to adapt. If the change exceeds the capabilities of its adaptive development, then the stability of the system is lost.

The ability of a system to compensate for disturbances of a certain type indicates its adaptability to disturbances of this kind without loss of stability.

Under the influence of negatively influencing factors, maintaining the balance can be facilitated by the system's safety margin, which can be involved in the system at any time without additional costs. The equilibrium to which the system is able to return is called the state of stable equilibrium. It provides a consistently high functioning result.

Stability can be characterized by a continuous change in the observed parameter within certain limits. The stability of the regional socio-economic system can be considered stable if, during its functioning under the influence of disturbances, the safety indicator does not go beyond a certain area limited by the required value of this indicator. The complexity of stability management in this case lies in how to quantify this safety indicator and how to set the required boundaries of its values.

But the sustainability of a regional socio-economic system cannot be determined under conditions of forcing all its elements to function in a predetermined mode. Sooner or later, such artificially created system stability is violated and a dysfunction of system elements occurs. The natural stability of the regional system implies such a structuring and interaction of elements in which their coordinated functioning is carried out due to the internal ability to self-organize.

The growth of stability of the regional socio-economic system in some cases is achieved by increasing the complexity of the systems. A system containing a greater number of elements is relatively more stable if an increase in their number does not lead to a decrease in the structural stability of the system. In the general case, the stability of a system depends not only on the number of its elements, but also on how they are combined.

"Finance: planning, management, control", 2011, N 5

The economic systems of all countries of the world, based on market mechanisms, are characterized by cyclical development - after a significant economic recovery, an economic recession always ensues. This statement is also true for regional economic systems, which are subsystems, elements of the country's economic system. As a rule, the state of the regional economic system correlates with the state of the country's economic system.

The governments of all states, regional administrations, individual entrepreneurial structures strive to achieve constant economic growth, but so far no one has succeeded. Practical studies confirm that in any economic system based on market mechanisms, oscillatory processes, wave-like movements occur due to imperfection of these mechanisms. Moreover, fluctuations in market activity in different economic systems vary quite significantly in terms of regularity, duration and causes. With a period of several years, economic growth and the rise in business activity are replaced by a decrease in macro-, meso- and microeconomic growth indicators. There is a recession, demand and supply are declining, and business activity is dying.

The economic downturn is characterized by the identification of unstable phenomena in the economic system, which first slow down the development of the entire system, forcing it to adapt to new operating conditions, and then the economic system begins to develop at a faster pace until it accumulates new contradictions and unstable phenomena in its structure. Then this cycle repeats again.

However, in the economic literature more attention is paid to the stable state of economic systems, equilibrium and stability. At the same time, the moment is missed that stability and order cannot exist without instability. These two opposite states are one whole of one process - the development of the economic system.

If economic stability is defined as a stable state of the economic system that ensures the optimal functioning and development of this system, the preservation of its basic characteristics under the influence of internal and external changes, then the economic instability of the economic system is its condition when there is a decrease in the pace and dynamism of its development, the emergence stagnant processes and phenomena, the emergence of tension in business circles, characterized by a decline in business activity and growing mistrust of business structures towards each other.

Instability is constructive through destructiveness: stability arises from and from instability, instability, like stability, underlies the development of the economic system. Instability is destructive through constructiveness, since the complex ordered structures that have arisen by this time become increasingly unstable.

The constructive role of instability in the development of the economic system is manifested as follows:

• the growth of unstable phenomena in the economic system is a signal for the system to enter one of the new development paths, one of the possible structures;
• instability underlies the mechanism of combining simple structures into complex ones, the mechanism of coordinating the pace of their evolution (co-evolution), i.e. leads to the need to coordinate the interests of all economic entities at different levels of the country's economic system in order to overcome the existing contradictions;
• instability can act as a mechanism for switching, changing various modes of system development, transitions from one relatively stable structure to another.

Co-evolution  - a conjugate, interdependent change in systems or parts within the whole. This is the principle of global evolution. This concept itself came from evolutionary population theory.

The concept of co-evolution is closely related to the concept of self-organization. Self-organization deals with the structures and states of developing systems, and co-evolution deals with the relations between such systems, with the relationships of evolutionary changes.

Stability of the development of an economic system of any order is achieved through overcoming the unstable phenomena that have accumulated over a certain period of development and functioning of various elements of the system. The concept of instability in the development of the regional economic system must be freed from the negative connotation, since this feature is inherent in such complex systems as the regional economy. It is instability that can be a condition for stable and dynamic development. In the regional economic system, which has been in equilibrium for a long time, contradictions accumulate, leading to an unstable state due to the fact that a system with this structure is unable to solve the tasks of ensuring human life. The economy of the region is able to develop effectively only after resolving these contradictions. For stable stationary systems, a small perturbation “falls” on the same solution, on the same structure. Without a pair of instability-stability there is no development. Instability gives an impetus to a new stage in the development of the system.

As noted by I.R. Prigogine, “the term“ instability ”has a strange fate. Introduced into widespread use recently, it is sometimes used with a slightly obscured negative connotation, and moreover, as a rule, to express content that should be excluded from a truly scientific description of reality. Order and disorder Thus, they turn out to be closely related - one includes the other. And we can evaluate this statement as the main change that occurs in our perception of the universe today ... Yes, the world is unstable. But this does not mean that it "Recognizing instability is not surrender, on the contrary, it is an invitation to new experimental and theoretical studies that take into account the specific nature of this world."

Stability is the stay of the process in a strict space-time framework. An example of stability in physics is constants (Planck's constant, Newton's first law, the speed of light in vacuum, etc.). In economics, this is a market equilibrium, perfect competition, freedom of economic entities. Stability is distinguished by its coherence, i.e. uniformity over large space-time intervals.

Stability  - a strict set of properties, where the slightest fluctuations are considered as interference, as a breakdown in instability.

Instability  - the state of the system, characterized by the heterogeneity and diversity of each of the ongoing processes and all changes in general. This is a form of observed relationships and causation of all phenomena, the opposite of a stable state.

The human environment, including nature and society with its superstructures, is unstable, unstable, nonequilibrium, developing. When considering the problems of such a world, it is necessary to take into account two of its opposite and interrelated, mutually conditioning qualities - stability and instability, order and chaos, certainty and uncertainty.

Instability is a condition for stable and dynamic development of the economic system of the region, which occurs due to the destruction, removal of non-viable forms. Stability and instability in the system, the formation of new structures and the destruction of old ones, replacing each other, develop and evolve the system. Stability and instability arise and exist simultaneously: one includes the other - these are two aspects of one whole, they give us a different vision of economic processes and phenomena.

Modern science, including economic, deals with complex systems, the connection between which is carried out not only through order, stability, but also through instability. Only in the unity of stability and instability can the evolution of the complex economic system of a region and its elements be investigated. A complex regional economic system is a whole consisting of stable and unstable parts. The evolution of such a system leads to a new quality, to a new round of dynamic development.

The evolution of a system can, as mentioned above, be understood as a purposeful movement, a change in this system along a certain development path, consisting of points of states of stability and instability.

In recent years, a new area of \u200b\u200bresearch has been actively formed - evolutionary economics. The undulating, cyclical nature of the operation of the basic laws is observed in an open economic system. State regulation, its scale and importance undergo significant changes as the economy evolves. The diminishing role of the state will alternate with periods of wave-like growth. The decrease in the role and importance of the state regulation system during the evolution of the socio-economic system will alternate with its strengthening at certain stages of instability in the economic system, there will be periods of liberalization and control over prices and wages.

The stability of the system is its ability to maintain its movement along the trajectory at a level of resource consumption that can self-sustain, self-regulate for a long time.

Traditional macroeconomics focuses on continuous and, most often, quantitative growth, and not on sustainable development, which does not take into account the development efficiency of the economic system.

The effectiveness of the development of the system - the effectiveness of the process of development of the system, defined as the ratio of the result, the effect of its functioning to the costs that determined the result.

For modern economic systems, the development of mechanisms that would ensure their sustainable development without a quantitative increase in resources with the help of labor, value and capital is relevant.

The evolution of the system is determined by the struggle of organization and disorganization in the system, the accumulation and complication of information, its organization and self-organization, the complexity and variety of intrasystem processes. An important criterion for the effectiveness of the system is its dynamic, structural and organizational predictability, the absence of anomalies and the provision of dynamic growth, the presence and dynamic updating of the criteria for evaluating decisions.

The study of the stability and instability of the development of the banking system should be given special attention, since this particular system is the main barometer that shows the state of the economy. Banks and non-banking organizations included in the banking system are a fundamental block that allows economic entities of the country to function and develop efficiently. The state of stability and instability of the banking system is directly related to the state of finances of the real economy, the finances of the national economy, as well as the state of financial relations between the sectors of the real economy of the regions.

The banking system is in the field of stability when it contributes to the functioning of the economy, but does not hinder it, and disperses the financial imbalances that arise as a result of significant negative and unexpected events.

The stability of the banking system is characterized by the following main features:

• stability of the payment infrastructure (uninterrupted settlements in the economy);
• stability of financial institutions (banks and non-bank financial intermediaries);
• stability of interest rates in the interbank market (lack of excessive volatility);
• a safety margin in the banking system that is sufficient so that it can withstand negative economic shocks in the future, absorb negative economic shocks and not extend them to the real economy;
• efficient distribution of financial resources in the economy;
• effective management of financial risks in the economy (identification, quantification, pricing and redistribution of risks).

The stability of the banking system is associated with the problem of ensuring the highest possible level of financial stability in the economy, i.e. stability of financial relations of all sectors of the economy.

According to F. Mishkin’s definition, “financial instability occurs when shocks that affect the financial system impede the flow of information in such a way that the financial system can no longer do its job of channeling funds to places where there are opportunities for productive investment.”

According to P.V. Callaurah financial instability (destabilization) implies a balance of risks and / or vulnerabilities in the financial system in which it ceases to fulfill its functions, key financial intermediaries are not able to fulfill their financial obligations, and negative shocks are transmitted through the financial system to the real economy.

H. Minsky believed that instability in the banking system is a normal functioning, internally generated by the behavior of the capitalist economy. Instability, in accordance with the views of H. Minsky, is endogenously present in the market economy, is associated with the cyclical dynamics of markets and the economy as a whole and can lead to instability even without external shocks.

Consider the process of increasing unstable phenomena in the economic system according to the concept of H. Minsky.

The revitalization phase of the business cycle, which H. Minsky calls the "state of calm growth," is stimulated by increased optimism of economic entities. The expected income from the use of capital assets is growing, the investment process is gaining momentum. However, the risks are still high due to the fact that the recent recession and depression are fresh in the minds of businessmen and bankers. Therefore, most of the investments are financed from domestic sources, and this is the reason that secured financing prevails in the economy, in the terminology of H. Minsky. According to H. Minsky, the financial system in an economy with secured financing is “solid” with respect to external shocks and impacts.

Thus, a “state of calm growth" is ideal for the economy. Aggregate demand and real output are increasing rapidly, current output prices are rising steadily and slowly, unemployment is forcing close to natural, and moreover, due to the prevalence of secured financing, the financial system is healthy and “solid”. However, the "state of calm growth", regarded as normal for the economic system, as the state to which such a system naturally aspires, is in reality not self-sustaining, as shown in the concept of H. Minsky.

The longer the economy is in a "state of calm growth", i.e. the longer prosperity lasts, the more optimistic the expectations of business entities become and the more the risks of the borrower and the lender decrease. Business entities are increasingly showing an "incentive to invest", but, due to lack of own funds, they are forced to switch to external financing. In other words, the willingness of firms to issue liabilities in order to acquire assets is increasing. Banks and other financial institutions react to this, not only increasing the amount of money in circulation, but also offering qualitatively new types of them. During this period, the largest number of financial innovations occurs that change the quantity and quality of money: on the one hand, the structure of money is becoming more complicated due to the appearance of less and less liquid “quasi-money”; and on the other hand, the amount of money and / or the speed of their circulation increases.

If the Central Bank, seeking to cool the situation, raises the discount rate and reduces the money supply in the economy, then this only adds fuel to the fire of ingenuity of financial intermediaries. High and rising interest rates reward innovation in the financial sector. The increase in reserve requirements in relation to traditional forms of credit money (demand deposits, etc.) and other similar measures are pushing financial institutions to create new forms of money that are not yet under the control of the Central Bank. This is particularly facilitated by the application of the “strategy of managed liabilities”.

As a result of this financial evolution, the money supply is slipping away from the custody of the “creators of monetary policy,” so that its effectiveness is weakening.

As a result, both reducing the risks of the borrower and the lender, and financial innovations change the type of financing that is used by the sector of business entities in carrying out investment activities. The transition of firms to excessive external financing has the following results:

but) speculative financingat which current cash inflows are sufficient only for interest payments, but they are not enough to amortize debt, and the business sector is forced to resort to new loans, carrying out the so-called rollover loan;

b) " Ponzi Financingat which current cash inflows are not enough even to pay interest on a loan, and the business sector is forced to increase debt. Ponzi financing is nothing more than a financial pyramid.

With the predominance in the economy of these two types of financing (and especially the latter), the financial system becomes, according to H. Minsky, "fragile"; economic instability is increasing, and the pendulum of business activity is swinging more and more in it.

It should be noted that Ponzi Financing is by no means generated by company fraud, but by the general financial and economic situation and, above all, by the growth of interest rates. Their increase leads to an increase in current financial liabilities of firms with a system of floating interest rates or when using rollover loans, i.e. with speculative financing. In the latter case, rising interest rates inevitably transform speculative financing into Ponzi financing.

But Ponzi Financing is short-lived. Sooner or later, business entities using this type of financing will not be able to increase their debt to pay liabilities, at least because of the lender's risk, and also because of the general lack of liquidity in the economy. That is why the greater the weight of speculative and Ponzi financing, the greater the fragility of the financial system.

The concept of financial fragility is extremely important in Minsky's theory. It is no accident that, as already noted, his “hypothesis of financial instability” is often also called the “hypothesis of financial fragility”. Based on these definitions, it becomes clear why speculative and Ponzi financing give rise to financial fragility. It is also clear why financial fragility is perhaps the main reason for the cyclical recession. However, the main conclusion that can be drawn at this stage of the analysis of the Minsky theory is as follows. Increasing the degree of financial fragility (financial fragillation) of the economy is an integral element of the development of the country's economy. Economic development is impossible without financial fragillation. But since such fragillation creates the prerequisites for a change in market volatility by instability, the development of the economic system has a cyclical nature and cannot proceed uniformly and balancedly.

In our opinion, the concept of financial instability of H. Minsky is a confirmation of the unity of the aspects of stability and instability in the process of development of the regional economy and, in particular, the development of the banking system of the region.

The main signs of instability of the banking system at this stage of development of the country's economy are:

• the inability of the banking system to adequately perform the functions of accumulating and mobilizing temporarily free cash;
• inability to satisfy the need of business entities and individuals for credit resources, high interest rates on credit resources;
• inability to ensure timely settlements and payments in the economy;
• inaccurate assessment and management of financial risks in the banking system;
• poor management of the institutions of the banking system of the region in the current conditions of the economic situation;
• high volatility of interest rates in the interbank market due to distrust of the banking system institutions to each other.

Instability in the banking system arises due to the increase over a certain period of time of a significant number of negative trends and contradictions of a macroeconomic and microeconomic nature. They are the result of a combination of both external, with respect to the banking system, factors and the shortcomings of the banking system itself.

The main macroeconomic factors of instability in the development of the banking system are:

• high ratio of domestic credit to GDP;
• rapid growth in money supply;
• the outflow of funds of depositors from banks due to distrust of the banking system of the country as a whole;
• decline in exports caused by adverse shocks in world markets;
• revaluation of the national currency in real terms; significant external debt;
• weak provisioning for short-term liabilities; low economic growth rates;
• negative shocks in the stock market;
• low foreign exchange reserves;
• high interest rates in the global capital market;
• capital outflow from the country;
• increase in national interest rates.

Macroeconomic factors and problems are the main causes of instability in the banking system of the region, since the macroeconomic environment determines the field of activity of banks. However, the instability of the banking system arises with the simultaneous manifestation of the accumulated problems of most banks (microeconomic factors) and mesoeconomic factors, which can be exacerbated by sharp changes in macroeconomic factors.

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Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education

National Research Nuclear University MEPhI

Social and Economic Faculty

Department of Economics, Economic and Mathematical Methods and Computer Science

COURSE WORK

discipline "Macroeconomics"

Problems of social stability in the national economy

Student Samokhova E.A.

2 courses of EKN of group B14

Teacher Kobylina E.V.

Obninsk - 2016

Introduction

Chapter 1. The concept of social stability. Stability indicators

1.1 Social stability as a factor in economic development

1.2 Key indicators of social stability

Chapter 2. Problems of social stability in the Russian economy

2.1 Basic social indicators of the Russian economy

2.2 The main threats to social stability and solutions

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

Any society, to one degree or another, takes measures for its development and improvement. Various changes are taking place in the sectors of the national economy. The reformation affects all areas: economic, social, political, cultural, etc. One of the key concepts characterizing the state of the economy before and after the changes is the concept of social stability.

Social stability in the broad sense of the word can be understood as the sustainability of public institutions. That is, social stability is the ability of institutions to respond to adverse manifestations in the economy with the least losses.

The problem of social stability in modern conditions is especially acute. The Russian economy is not going through the best period now; the consequences of economic sanctions and instability in the oil market are affecting it. This is what exacerbates the old and creates new social problems - for example, rising prices and falling real incomes of citizens.

Another threat is the instability of the real sector of the economy, and it is also a social threat. The closure of enterprises also creates the closure of jobs, that is, people find themselves without sources of income.

That is why the state must control the economic and social sphere, avoiding its excessive fluctuations. The measures that the authorities should take may relate to financial support, search for employment (for example, various retraining on the basis of state employment centers). All this must be done for one purpose: to provide a person with work (as the main source of income). It is noted that such negative social manifestations as crime, drunkenness, drug addiction are generated mainly in a society affected by crisis phenomena in the economy. As an example, instability in the economy in transition (in the economy of the 1990s), when the situation was close to a social explosion (events in Moscow in 1991 and 1993), can be cited. Here we also note the events of August 1998, when the default occurred, and the population was actually impoverished by 2 times.

The main purpose of the course work is to analyze the social stability of the Russian economy, and the main threats that appear or may appear in the future. In accordance with the purpose of the work, the following tasks were set:

Consider the concept of "social stability" and show how it relates to the state of the national economy;

To develop a system of indicators that most clearly reflect the state of the socio-economic environment;

To analyze data on indicators of the Russian economy, to establish the possible limits of their variation;

To formulate the main threats that may arise to social stability with an indication of the possible consequences;

Present the main ways to normalize the socio-economic situation with modern conditions.

The Object of study in the course work is the Russian economy and its main indicators. The subject of the study is the factors affecting social stability and the degree of their influence.

The practical significance of the work lies in the fact that the results of the study make it possible to identify the main indicators of social stability and to influence them using various economic instruments. Thus, this is a kind of guidelines for statistical research.

When writing a term paper the following materials were used: textbooks on economic theory and socio-economic statistics, scientific articles on social stability, materials from Internet sources.

The structure of the course work: introduction, 2 chapters, conclusion and list of references.

Chapter1. The concept of social stability. Stability indicators

1.1 Social stability as a factor in economic development

Many researchers associate social stability with the concept of immutability. There are ideas that the stability of society is the immutability of social systems. Any change affects in a negative way and leads to a decrease in social welfare.

This is not entirely true. Social immutability is more a sign of stagnation, but not a sign of stability. Stagnation only in the short term is stable, but stagnant problems sooner or later lead to a sharp change in society, usually destructive. In the 60-70s of the last century, this situation was observed in the USSR. Prices for many groups of goods were frozen (under the slogan of “stable prices”), as a result of which in the late 70s the prices of goods ceased to correspond to the costs of their production. This led to a reduction in production (especially in the light and food industries) and a shortage of goods. Subsequent events became direct evidence that stagnation sooner or later leads to a social explosion - the population, tired of the stagnant state, plunged into a perestroika state. History shows what this led to: the collapse of the USSR and the long-term crisis of the domestic economy.

In sociology, the following levels of social stability are distinguished:

1) 1st level - the internal stability of social systems (institutions, organizations, etc.). For example, the stability of the banking system, as one of the main economic institutions, or the stability of the stock market, etc.

2) 2nd level - the stability of the relationship of institutions and social systems. For example, if the relationship between the political and economic system is violated, then this will affect all other social institutions. An example is the events of the Great Depression of 1929-1933, when the governments of several countries completely lost control over the economy, which led to the aggravation of all social problems

3) 3rd level - social stability (from the word society-society), that is, the stability of the whole society as a whole. This stability will include economic, political, cultural, social stability at the level of the whole society.

Thus, a stable society is a developing society, and at the same time, maintaining its stability. It has established the mechanism of interconnections between institutions, and also excludes the possibility of various social explosions. It follows that the higher the welfare of each person individually, the higher the stability of society.

Let us single out the main political factors of the stability of society (since decision-making in all areas, including the economic one, depends on politicians):

1) A stable society must be democratic. For some time, stability can be maintained by societies with a totalitarian regime of government (the example we examined above), but this is more of stagnation than stability.

2) The prevalence of the law is one of the key characteristics of a stable society. This is quite logical, since the term opposite to stability is anarchy or lawlessness, which is generated by various social explosions (revolutions, riots, uprisings, etc.)

3) There should be consensus between the government and society, that is, the government must be legitimate. Confidence in the authorities at various levels is one of the conditions of social stability. If there is no trust in power (as, for example, in the 1990s) then there can be no talk of any stability.

4) The basis of stable development is a multi-party system (and not only on paper). It is noted that in the most developed countries (USA, UK, Germany), a multi-party system operates with intense competition of 2-3 political parties. The lack of competition creates a monopoly of power of one party, which, on the one hand, causes discontent among some segments of the population, and on the other hand, kills all incentives for productive work. Unfortunately, the situation in Russia is close to the second option. The monopoly of one party does not allow to take some necessary (especially in modern conditions) decisions (we will consider them below).

1.2 Key indicators of social stability

Consider the main indicators that are used in the analysis of social stability. Note that the classification of indicators may be different to the considered. This classification was proposed by economists and sociologists from the Institute for Social and Political Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Scientists have identified the following indicators and their critical values:

1) The factor of differentiation of the population by income or the ratio of income of 10% of the richest part of the population to incomes of 10% of the poorest part of the population. The critical limit value of 10: 1 has also been established. However, in addition to this indicator, other important indicators that are used in most countries should be noted:

The decile coefficient of income differentiation, which shows how many times the minimum income among 10% of the richest people, exceeds the maximum income among 10% of the poorest people. The decile coefficient of differentiation is calculated by the formula (1):

The ratio of funds is determined by the ratio between the average income in the tenth and first decile groups (2):

The average per capita income of 10% of the population with a minimum income, and 10% of the population of the richest part, respectively.

2 of the above coefficients just allow to judge the ratio of income of the richest to income of the poorest.

The coefficients of differentiation of incomes of the population belong to the Pareto-Lorenz-Gini rating system, which is widely used in foreign economic and social statistics. The Italian economist V. Pareto (which we have already noted above), using statistical methods, established that there is an inverse relationship between the level of income and the number of recipients, known as the “axiom 20-80”: 20% of the population have 80% of all total incomes, and vice versa 80% of the population have the remaining 20% \u200b\u200bof income.

The idea of \u200b\u200bV. Pareto was continued and developed in his writings by the American economist O. Lorenz, who proposed displaying the main idea of \u200b\u200bPareto on a graph called the “Lorentz curve” (Fig. 1):

Let us consider in more detail the graph of the Lorentz curve. If the distribution of income is even, then graphically this is displayed by the bisector. The Lorentz curve shows an uneven income distribution. Moreover, the more it is concave, the stronger the differentiation.

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Fig. 1 Lorenz curve

Recall that the convexity and concavity of a function is determined by the second derivative of this function. Thus, if the Lorentz curve with the vertex (0; 0) is a polynomial of the second degree (in other words, the increasing part of the parabola), then its formula has the form ax 2 + bx, and the second derivative is 2a. Therefore, the determining factor in the differentiation in the Lorentz function is the coefficient a.

To characterize income inequality, Lorentz introduced a localization coefficient (3):

share of income and the share of the population of the i-group.

Geometrically, income inequality is evidenced by the area of \u200b\u200bthe figure located under the bisector on the graph of the Lorentz curve. Denote by x - population, y - income. Then, according to the Newton-Leibniz formula (4):

If the Lorentz curve is represented by a polynomial of the second degree, then the differentiation of income and the value of the Lorentz coefficient depends on the coefficients a and b in the parabola formula.

According to the Lorenz curve, the most common coefficient is calculated in the analysis of population incomes - the Gini income concentration coefficient. Geometrically, this is the ratio of the area of \u200b\u200bthe figure we just found to the area of \u200b\u200bthe entire triangle. If we take into account that the sides of the rectangle are equal to 1, then its area is 0.5, hence the Gini coefficient is (5):

In a more general form, the Gini coefficient is calculated as (6):

where is the share of the population with income higher than its maximum level in the i-group,

The share of i-group income in the total income of the population, calculated on an accrual basis.

2) The second factor identified in ISPI RAS is the unemployment rate. Unemployment is divided into 3 categories. The first two of them relate to natural unemployment, i.e. always present in the labor market.

Frictional unemployment is associated with the choice of a new job when leaving the old for various reasons and can last from 1 to 3 months. The presence of frictional unemployment is associated with the dynamism of the labor market, which works approximately according to the laws of supply and demand. An employee who has found a new, more paid place of work, all other things being equal, will get a job. The period of time from dismissal from an old place of work and placement in a new one is frictional unemployment;

Structural unemployment is associated with technological changes in production and is associated with the retraining of personnel for new working conditions or the search for a new job if retraining is not possible. Some economists generalize these two types of unemployment, believing that they belong to a natural level and are inevitable;

Cyclical unemployment is associated with fluctuations in economic cycles and manifests itself in a period of recession or depression. The cause of cyclical unemployment is a drop in the level of production and, as a result, a decrease in the demand for labor from enterprises. Cyclical unemployment characterizes economic growth, and therefore stands out in a separate category.

Unemployment has a number of negative effects on the socio-economic condition of society. Of these, one can distinguish:

Not fully utilizing the country's production potential and slowing down its economic development

The decline in the standard of living of those left without work, and as a result, deviant social manifestations - crimes, suicides, etc.

An increase in the tax burden on the employed part of the population as a result of the requirement to provide unemployed people and pay them benefits

Loss of qualifications by persons who have long been unemployed. The absence of a long time of working practice leads to the fact that a person begins to lag behind technological changes in the field of his specialty and experiences even greater difficulties in finding a job, since he does not have sufficient qualifications at this time

Other negative social manifestations that can no longer be attributed to an individual person, but to society as a whole.

The critical value of the unemployment rate is recognized as the level of 8-10%. The main indicators that are calculated in the analysis of unemployment are:

The economic activity index can be measured as the ratio of the number of economically active population aged 15 to 72 years to the total population. The economic activity index shows the security of the national economy with labor resources (3):

The structure of the employed economically active population by age. In the light of the emerging shortage of labor resources of a young age, this indicator is crucial. This indicator is also shared (4):

3) The level of inflation is crucial for determining social stability. You can even prove that the first two factors directly depend on the level of inflation. The Philips curve, which reflects the relationship between unemployment and inflation, is very conditional (Fig. 2):

However, the Philips curve is a theoretical model. In the case of strong economic fluctuations, stagflation occurs - this is an increase in both unemployment and inflation. Also, the inflation rate allows you to translate all indicators from nominal to real - for example, real growth in wages, cost of living, etc.

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Fig. 2. Phillips Curve

We examined key indicators that play a key role in determining social stability. It should be noted that these indicators can have a close relationship (correlation) with each other. The analysis of indicators (in accordance with the above critical values) allows us to draw conclusions about social stability and the main threats. For example, if the level of inflation and unemployment is high (from 15%), then stagflation takes place, which indicates a deep systemic crisis and is dangerous by possible social explosions.

social stability national economy

Chapter  2. Problems of social stability in the Russian economy

2.1 Basic social indicators of the Russian economy

To calculate the indicators of population differentiation by income, we present the basic data in tabular form (table 1):

Table 1

Incomes of the population and their share for 2008-2015

Consider how it increased over 2008-2015. the average level of wages (and, consequently, incomes). Since the average value fluctuates around 25 thousand rubles, we will show in Figure 3 the dynamics of the increase in persons with incomes of 20,000-25,000 rubles per capita:

Fig. 3. The dynamics of changes in the share of income of the population from 20,000 to 25,000 p.

However, the presented graph shows the change in per capita income excluding inflation, this is just an increase in nominal income. Therefore, in the following table, weigh the numbers taking into account inflation. Growth data will be adjusted (table 2):

table 2

Adjusted Table 1 Values

As can be seen from the table, the number of people with an average income of 20-25 thousand rubles increased from 4.3% to 10.51%. Thus, we can talk about the positive growth dynamics of per capita income in real terms. Therefore, if we consider the average per capita income as an indicator of stability, then since it has grown, then social stability has also strengthened.

One of the indicators that a number of Western scholars single out when analyzing social stability is the indicator of the “middle class” - which% of the economically active population can be attributed to it.

Indeed, the middle class represents people with incomes with which they can satisfy not only minimal needs. In developed countries, the minimum bar to enter the middle class is 2,000 thousand dollars (euros) per person. If we do not take into account the depreciation of the ruble, setting a fixed value of 35 rubles \u003d 1 dollar, then people with incomes over 60,000 rubles can be classified as middle class, the share of which, as we can see from the table, is very small and amounts to only 7.1% . Given that people with very high incomes (who obviously do not position themselves as the middle class) are also included in this category, there is even less (about 3%). Thus, if we associate our economy with developed countries (the share of the middle class in which is up to 30%), then in Russia it simply does not exist. Nevertheless, if we approach this issue on the other hand, positioning our country as a "country with a developing economy", following the example of BRICS, then a value of 35,000 rubles can be considered a bar for entry into the middle class. Discarding 3% of the population with excess income, we find the approximate number of middle-class people in Russia: S \u003d 28.2, which in principle is a fairly good indicator.

We will group by quantiles: in the first group we will include people with the lowest incomes and calculate their share of total income, in the fifth group with the highest incomes and calculate their share. In table 3, we display data for 2000-2014. with the calculation of the decile coefficient of funds and the Gini coefficient.

Table 6

Dynamics for 2000-2014, differentiation coefficients

Present in table 4 the value of the Gini coefficient in European countries:

Table 4

Gini coefficient in European countries

The lowest Gini coefficient is in Sweden and Norway, one of the leading countries in terms of living standards. Moreover, as can be seen from the table, in the countries of the former Soviet Union (Belarus, Ukraine), the coefficient also does not differ much from the average European indicators. Running a little ahead, we note that in Russia for a rather long period of time, the Gini coefficient exceeds a value of 0.4. The main reason for this is the privatization of the 90s. Imagine the dynamics of the Gini coefficient in Fig. 4:

From the calculation of the Gini coefficient, we can conclude that the stratification of society by income is obvious and has a stable character. This negatively affects social stability.

We turn to the consideration of the dynamics of unemployment. We display the main data in table 5:

Table 5

Employment in the Russian Federation in 2008-2013

As can be seen from the table, the number of unemployed among the economically active population in 2013 is 5.5%. Moreover, the variation of this indicator is great. In 2014, we can expect an increase in unemployment, which, however, is unlikely to go beyond a critical value of 10%. Conclusion: if we consider social stability in employment, then its level is quite acceptable.

Table 6 presents the inflation rate for 2008-2014.

In 2014 there was a sharp increase in inflation (up to 11.36%), which was due to the depreciation of the ruble and a sharp increase in prices for all groups of goods. The dynamics is negative, since the population of the Russian Federation perceives inflation as the main indicator of stability (mindful of the events of the 90s).

2.2 The main threats to social stability and ways to solve them

Consider the main threats to the social stability of the Russian Federation and possible solutions:

1) A high level of stratification of the population by income (Gini coefficient 0.41), the ratio between the incomes of the richest to the poorest 15: 1. These indicators are beyond the acceptable values. Dissatisfaction of the population with this state of affairs is very noticeable, although they do not express it openly. Recall that various social explosions were at the root of inequality: this was the case during the French Revolution of 1792, and during the October Revolution in Russia in 1917.

Unfortunately, the state understands this problem, but no solutions have yet been taken to resolve it. In all developed countries, a progressive taxation scale has been introduced - if a person has a large income, then the tax should be appropriate. Additional funds received in the budget can be used to increase wages for social workers. Thus, this measure is consistent with two goals: increasing budget revenues (which were reduced due to lower oil prices) and partially eliminating social stratification. It should strive, in the short term, to reduce the Gini coefficient to at least 0.35.

2) The second threat to social stability is inflation, which in 2014 for the first time in 5 years exceeded 10% and amounted to 11.36%, and these are official figures - prices for essential goods rose by 20-30%. Also, for the first time in 5 years, wage growth in real terms turned out to be negative. The threat of social stability with such high inflation is obvious - the population is dissatisfied with rising prices and lower living standards.

The state should control the market segment associated with the sale of basic socially significant goods. The increase in prices may not be associated with rising costs, but may be a consequence of dishonesty of entrepreneurs who, on the “general crisis wave”, decided to get unreasonably high profits. Therefore, regulatory authorities should constantly monitor retail outlets, stopping such attempts.

Conclusion

Ensuring social stability in society is one of the primary tasks for authorities. Social stability means the stability of public institutions and relationships to adverse manifestations in the economy. To give the concept of stability a mathematical base, a number of indicators have been introduced that characterize it. It:

1) Indicators of differentiation of incomes of the population. These include:

The ratio of income of 10% of the richest part of the population to 10% of the income of the poorest part of the population;

The Gini coefficient, which is most often used to analyze income differentiation.

2) unemployment rate

3) inflation rate

When analyzing the above coefficients, it was found: threats to social stability exist and have a very real probability. First of all, this is a high stratification of the population by income: the ratio of the income of the richest to the income of the poorest is 15: 1. At the same time, the Gini coefficient exceeds the value of 0.4, with a global level of 0.25-0.3. Note that even in the countries of the post-Soviet space (Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan) there is no such strong inequality.

Adverse economic factors also give rise to an increase in inflation, which Russian residents always perceive with concern. Note that the adverse effect of external factors will persist for a sufficiently long time, from here the state should look for ways to smooth out the negative consequences. For example, we proposed the option of introducing a progressive tax scale, which allows us to resolve several contradictions at once.

At the end of the work, we note: with apparent social stability, the problems in the Russian economy are serious enough to violate this stability at any time. There are a lot of pushing factors in history. Therefore, the main task of the authorities is to establish basic indicators, such as the Gini coefficient and inflation. In the next 2 years, the figures of 0.35 and 8%, respectively, can serve as the bar of these values.

List of references

1. Amosova V.V., Ghukasyan G.M. Economic Theory / V.V. Amosova, G.M. Ghukasyan. - M .: Eksmo, 2014 .-- 736 p.

2. Gryaznova A.G., Sokolinsky V.M. Economic theory: a training manual / A.G. Gryaznova, V.M. Sokolinsky. - M.: Knorus, 2014 .-- 464 p.

3. Eliseeva I.I. General theory of statistics: textbook / II. Eliseeva, M.M. Yuzbashev. - 5th ed., Revised. and add. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2013.- 655 p.

4. Zhuravleva, G.P. Economic theory. Macroeconomics: Textbook / G.P. Zhuravleva, N.A. Pozdnyakov, Yu.A. Pozdnyakov. - M .: INFRA-M, 2013 .-- 440 p.

5. Kiseleva EA: Economic theory. - M .: Business literature, 2011.-365

6. Melkumov, Ya.S. Socio-economic statistics: Textbook / Ya.S. Melkumov. - M .: INFRA-M, 2013 .-- 236 p.

7. Mankyu N.G. Macroeconomics / N.G. Mankyu. - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2014 .-- 560 p.

8. Statistics: textbook for bachelors / ed. L.I. Nivorozhkina. - M .: Dashkov and K: Nauka-Spectrum, 2011 .-- 415 p.

9. Applied statistics. Fundamentals of Econometrics: Textbook for High Schools: In 2 volumes - T. 1. Ayvazyan S.A., Mkhitaryan V.S. Probability Theory and Applied Statistics. - M: UNITY-DANA, 2012 .-- 656 p.

10. Yakovenko I.G. Risks of the social transformation of Russian society: cultural aspect. - M .: Progress-Tradition, 2010.-188 p.

11. Yakovleva, A.V. Economic statistics: Textbook / A.V. Yakovleva. - M.: EC RIOR, 2011 .-- 95 p.

12. Materials of the official website of Rosstat

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In real social life, there is practically no absolute stability. In any society, there are always imbalances within and between social systems, manifestations of real or potential instability. Instability refers to such deformations of the structure, functions or any processes of social systems (including societal) that deform these systems and threaten their integrity. Such instability can also be at the level of individual social systems (instability of the economy, state power, etc.), their interaction with each other, and finally, at the level of society as a whole.

However, the concept of instability also has a broader fundamental scientific and philosophical meaning. According to modern concepts, which are becoming more widespread among scientists of different scientific profiles, instability in the sense of instability is a fundamental characteristic of the whole universe. Such ideas can be attributed to society. Moreover, instability should not be understood as social chaos, but incompleteness, incompleteness at any given moment of social evolution, the possibility and necessity of social changes at one point or another in social life, even the unpredictability of these changes, their specific orientation, time and place of occurrence.

In real social life, instability, as a rule, is a sign of some unresolved problems, dysfunctions and deformations. Instability factors, as well as stability factors, can be external to the social system and internal. External factors, in turn, can be divided into social (man-made) and natural. The impact of external social factors can significantly distort and even destroy the social system. So, during the period of the aggressive colonial wars, many societies in Africa, Asia, America, Australia were destroyed, entire nations were destroyed, often with a high and unique culture. Natural disasters can significantly disrupt the stability of social (societal) systems. Under their influence, some social institutions, for example, the economy, the health care system, are often deformed or completely destroyed. Huge damage to the national economy, various life-support systems of people, their lives are caused by earthquakes, floods, typhoons, tsunamis, etc.

The internal social factors of the instability of social systems are also very diverse. In general, we can say that the instability of a system is the destruction or at least violation of its integrity, deformation of the structure and functions. This position can be illustrated in more detail on the example of social institutions. The instability of the activities of social institutions is manifested primarily in a significant imbalance between the structural components (for example, an imbalance in the sectors of the national economy in the economy), in functional disorder up to the failure to fulfill the necessary social functions, and deformation in the relationships between various social institutions.

From a sociological point of view, social stability is not a synonym for immutability, immobility of social systems and relations. In society, such immobility is, as a rule, not a sign of stability, but a sign of stagnation, sooner or later leads to instability, social tension, and ultimately to instability. In the former USSR, for example, for a long time, especially in the 1960s and 1970s, the government tried to keep stable, i.e., fixed, retail prices for many goods and services. However, in the end, this led to the fact that prices became completely inconsistent with the costs of labor and raw materials for the production of these goods, labor costs for the provision of services. In turn, this situation has led to the fact that producing goods and providing services has become economically unprofitable. As a result, production began to fall, scientific and technological progress slowed down, and stagnation areas began to expand. So the immutability of any systems does not mean their stability.

In a sociological sense, social stability is such a stability of social structures, processes and relations that, with all their changes, preserves their qualitative certainty and integrity as such.

It consists of three levels:

§ internal stability of social systems (institutions, organizations, communities, etc.);

§ the stability of their relationships and their interactions with each other;

§ stability of the whole society, which can be described as societal stability.

This latter will already include political, economic, ideological, cultural, etc. stability at the level of the whole society. A stable society is a society that is developing and at the same time preserving its stability, a society in which a mechanism of change is established that preserves its stability, eliminating such a struggle of social forces that leads to undermining the very foundations of society. Accordingly, instability is also caused by society and has the ability to settle for a long period, as well as have devastating consequences for all layers and systems of society. In order to avoid situations of various instabilities, I will introduce the term “social security”, and I will talk a little more in detail about this topic.

Political instability and the lack of conceptual strategies in the development of external relations, national interests, regional policy of Russia, the lack of well-balanced socio-economic programs lead to uncertainty in the sphere of ensuring the security of Russian society.

Safety is the social norm of modern society. The emergence of the topic of "security" in the horizons of the sociology of instability is caused by a number of circumstances. And among them, it is necessary first of all to single out the close connection and interdependence of the problems of ensuring stable development, the social order of society and maintaining the security of Russia. Next, we will reveal a little the topic of social security as a cell in stable coexistence in our country, and the factors that influence it.

Social security is the protection of the vital interests of the individual, family and society from internal and external threats. Its objects are all the basic elements of a social system for ensuring the quality and standard of living of the people, which are regulated by national and social policies. And in this regard, social security is an integral part of national security. As we all remember, until recently there was no social development strategy in social policy. The consequence of this was a low life expectancy, a high level of poverty, an unjustifiably high social differentiation of the population, regional imbalance in living standards, a decrease in the quality of education and healthcare, as well as the general level of spirituality and culture in our society. And, finally, the demographic problem has become evident in all its growth.

As you know, in 2005, priority national projects appeared that laid the foundation for a strategic turn in social policy and served as the basis for the formation of a social strategy in Russia. The importance of these projects is that they were focused on the person, on the need for a priority solution to the problems of his education, his health, his well-being.

To develop principles for achieving the long-term goals of social development, which were proclaimed at a famous meeting of the State Council by Vladimir Putin, the tasks of building a socio-economic policy as a policy for managing the future were identified. And in this regard, it is necessary that the concept of socio-economic development of our country becomes a strategy for safe and sustainable social development aimed at improving social relations, ensuring equal opportunities and social consolidation.

This requires serious financial resources and the solution of a rather complicated task of implementing two interrelated, but at the same time diverse directions - the demand for equality and the demand for efficiency. This, in turn, requires the simultaneous accumulation of social mobility and social justice within a market economy, corresponding to the level and pace of development of society.

In this regard, social security is a key guarantee of the safety and effectiveness of all types of investment in human capital. To ensure it, the adoption and fulfillment of high social obligations of the state within the framework of an integrated system of social standards is needed.

The new social policy requires the constant creation and expansion for society and for each citizen of the infrastructure of new opportunities for self-realization, self-development of citizens' own investments in their future and the future of their family. This needs to be recognized by everyone - and the authorities, and society, and every citizen. Although today there is an accumulating obvious lack of such opportunities, a shortage of professional tools: to save, insure, accumulate and invest.

The need to solve the strategic tasks of social development requires calculated, effective and discussed with society new principles of financing the social sphere, a clear idea of \u200b\u200bthe prospects for its individual areas, restructuring and increased government responsibility.

For this purpose, as we know, the Ministry of Economic Development has developed a draft Concept for Socio-Economic Development until 2020, which does not focus enough on overcoming the differentiation of Russian society in terms of quality and standard of living, and does not provide any reasonable mechanisms to reduce property, territorial, information and other gaps between sections of the population, the expansion of the rights and freedoms of those in need. In the revised version of the concept, income policy, housing policy, standards for classifying the middle class and the possibility of achieving its share of 50-60% in the total population of the country are not sufficiently substantiated.

I believe that we must proceed from a completely different paradigm: from the recognition of the equal importance of social and economic policy for society. This is a fundamental position that is present in the social systems of those civilized countries, where the problems of social welfare of citizens are largely solved, where social standards are adopted.

Human creativity is too complex a phenomenon to be reduced only to social and cultural conditions. But it is impossible to ignore the influence of these conditions on creativity, since they are of great importance, representing the environment under the influence of which any human activity is located.